Month: December 2023

Chronology: The week in review: The MLC’s First Royalty Audit, @CommonsCMS hears from @VVBrown, Spotify discovers cost cutting

It is commonplace for artists to conduct a royalty examination of their record company, sometimes called an “audit.” Until the Music Modernization Act, the statutory license did not permit songwriters to audit users of the statutory license. The Harry Fox Agency “standard” license for physical records had two principal features that differed from the straight statutory license: quarterly accounting and an audit right. When streaming became popular, the services both refused to comply with the statutory regulations and also refused to allow anyone to audit because the statutory regulations they failed to comply with did not permit an audit. I brought this absurdity to the attention of the Copyright Office in 2011.

After much hoopla, the lobbyists wrote an audit right for copyright owners into the Music Modernization Act. However, rather than permitting copyright owners to audit music users as is long standing common practice on the record side, the lobbyists decided to allow copyright owners to audit the Mechanical Licensing Collective. This is consistent with the desire of services to distance themselves from those pesky songwriters by inserting the MLC in between the services and their ultimate vendors, the songwriters and copyright owners. The services can be audited by the MLC (whose salaries are paid by the services), but that hasn’t happened yet to my knowledge.

But the MLC has received what I believe is its first audit notice that was just published by the Copyright Office after receiving it on November 9. First up is Bridgeport Music, Inc. for the period January 1, 2021, through December 31, 2023. January 1, 2021 was the “license availability date” or the date that the MLC began accounting for royalties under the MMA’s blanket license.

2023-27554-bridgeport-audit-noticeDownload

Why Audit Now?

Bridgeport’s audit is wise. There are no doubt millions if not billions of streams to be verified. The MLC’s systems are largely untested, compared to other music users such as record companies that have been audited hundreds, if not thousands of times depending on how long they are operating. Competent royalty examiners will look under the hood and find out whether it’s even possible to render reasonably accurate accounting statements given the MLC’s systems. Maybe it’s all fine, but maybe it’s not. The wisdom of Bridgeport’s two year audit window is that two years is long enough to have a chance at a recovery but it’s not so long that you are drowned in data and susceptible to taking shortcuts.

In other words, why wait around?

Auditing the Black Box

A big difference between the audit rules the lobbyists wrote into the MMA and other audits is that the MLC audit is based on payments, not statements. The relevant language in the statute makes this very clear:

A copyright owner entitled to receive payments of royalties for covered activities from the mechanical licensing collective may, individually or with other copyright owners, conduct an audit of the mechanical licensing collective to verify the accuracy of royalty payments by the mechanical licensing collective to such copyright owner…The qualified auditor shall determine the accuracy of royalty payments, including whether an underpayment or overpayment of royalties was made by the mechanical licensing collective to each auditing copyright owner.

Royalty payments would include a share of black box royalties distributed to copyright owners. It seems reasonable that on audit a copyright owner could verify how this share was arrived at and whatever calculations would be necessary to calculate those payments, or maybe the absence of such payments that should have been made. Determining what is not paid that should have been paid is an important part of any royalty verification examination.

Systems Transparency

Information too confidential to be detected cannot be corrected.  It is important to remember that copyright owner audits of the MLC will be the first time an independent third party has had a look at the accounting systems and functional technology of The MLC. If those audits reveal functional defects in the MLC’s systems or technology that affects any output of The MLC, i.e., not just the royalties being audited, it seems to me that those defects should be disclosed to the public. Audit settlements should not be used as hush money payments to keep embarrassing revelations from being publicly disclosed.

Unsurprisingly, The MLC lobbied to have broadly confidential treatment of all audits. Realize that there may well be confidential financial information disclosed as part of any audit that both copyright owners and The MLC will want to keep secret. There is no reason to keep secrets about The MLC’s systems. To take an extreme example, if on audit the auditors discovered that The MLC’s systems added 2 plus 2 and got 5, that is a fact that others have a legitimate interest in having disclosed to include the Copyright Office itself that is about to launch a 5 year review of The MLC for redesignation. Indeed, auditors may discover systemic flaws that could arguably require The MLC to recalculate many if not all statements or at least explain why they should not. (Note that a royalty auditor is required to deliver a copy of the auditor’s final report to The MLC for review even before giving it to their client. This puts The MLC on notice of any systemic flaws in The MLC’s systems found by the auditor and gives it the opportunity to correct any factual errors.)

I think that systemic flaws found by an auditor should be disclosed publicly after taking care to redact any confidential financial information. This will allow both the Copyright Office and MLC members to fix any discovered flaws.

The “Qualified Auditor” Typo

It is important to realize that there is no good reason why a C.P.A. must conduct the audit; this is another drafting glitch in the MMA that requires both The MLC’s audited financial statements and royalty compliance examinations be conducted by a C.P.A, defined as a “Qualified Auditor” (17 USC § 115(e)(25)). It’s easy to understand why audited financials prepared according to GAAP should be opined by a C.P.A. but it is ludicrous that a C.P.A. should be required to conduct a royalty exam for royalties that have nothing to do with GAAP and never have.

As Warner Music Group’s Ron Wilcox testified to the CRJs, “Because royalty audits require extensive technical and industry-specific expertise, in WMG’s experience a CPA certification is not generally a requirement for conducting such audits. To my knowledge, some of the. most experienced and knowledgeable royalty auditors in the music industry are not CPAs.”

The “Qualified Auditor” defined term should be limited to the MLC’s financials and removed from the audit clauses.

@VVBrown Articulates the Need for a Complete Reset of Streaming

Spotify Discovers Cost Cutting

After laying off 1500 employees in its latest layoffs, Spotify may consider other costs like rent in its many floors of 4 World Trade Center.

Chronology: The week in review, Spotify layoffs, mechanical rate increase, FTC on copyright issues in AI

What Spotify needs is a good pandemic.  

Harsh?  Not really, at least not from a share price point of view. Spotify’s all time highest share price was during the COVID pandemic.

Spotify CEO Daniel Ek and the press tells us that Spotify is cutting 1,500 jobs which works out to about 17% of Spotify employees. Which works out to a pre-layoff workforce of 8,823.  So let’s start there—that workforce number seems very high and is completely out of line with some recent data from Statista which is usually reliable.

If Statista is correct, Spotify employed 5,584 as of last year. Yet somehow Spotify’s 2023 workforce grew to 9200 according to the Guardian, fully 2/3 over that 2022 level without a commensurate and offsetting growth in revenue. That’s a governance question in and of itself.

Why the layoffs? The Guardian reports that Spotify CEO Daniel Ek is concerned about costs. He says “Despite our efforts to reduce costs this past year, our cost structure for where we need to be is too big.” Maybe I missed it, but the only time I can recall Daniel Ek being vocally concerned about Spotify’s operating costs was when it came to paying royalties. Then it was full-blown poor mouthing while signing leases for very expensive office space in 4 World Trade Center as well as other pricy real estate, executive compensation and podcasters like Harry & Meghan.

Mr. Ek announced his new, new thing:

Over the last two years, we’ve put significant emphasis on building Spotify into a truly great and sustainable business – one designed to achieve our goal of being the world’s leading audio company and one that will consistently drive profitability and growth into the future. While we’ve made worthy strides, as I’ve shared many times, we still have work to do. Economic growth has slowed dramatically and capital has become more expensive. Spotify is not an exception to these realities.

Which “economic growth” is that?

But, he is definitely right about capital costs.

Still, Spotify’s job cuts are not necessarily that surprising considering the macro economy, most specifically rents and interest rates. As recently as 2018, Spotify was the second largest tenant at 4 WTC. Considering the sheer size of Spotify’s New York office space, it’s not surprising that Spotify is now subletting five floors of 4 WTC earlier this year. That’s right, the company had a spare five floors. Can that excess just be more people working at home given Mr. Ek’s decision to expand Spotify’s workforce? But why does Spotify need to be a major tenant in World Trade Center in the first place? Renting the big New York office space is the corporate equivalent of playing house. That’s an expensive game of pretend.

Remember that Spotify is one of the many companies that rose to dominance during the era of easy money in response to the financial crisis that was the hallmark of quantitative easing and the Federal Reserve’s Zero Interest Rate Policy beginning around 2008. Spotify’s bankers were able to fuel Daniel Ek’s desire to IPO and cash out in the public markets by enabling Spotify to run at a loss because money was cheap and the stock market had a higher tolerance for risky investments. When you get a negative interest rate for saving money, Spotify stock doesn’t seem like a totally insane investment by comparison. This may have contributed to two stock buy-back programs of $1 billion each, Spotify’s deal with Barcelona FC and other notorious excesses.

As a great man said, don’t confuse leverage for genius. It was only a matter of time until the harsh new world of quantitative tightening and sharply higher inflation came back to bite. For many years, Spotify told Wall Street a growth story which deflected attention away from the company’s loss making operations. A growth story pumps up the stock price until the chickens start coming home to roost. (Growth is also the reason to put off exercising pricing power over subscriptions.) Investors bought into the growth story in the absence of alternatives, not just for Spotify but for the market in general (compare Russell Growth and Value indexes from 2008-2023). Cutting costs and seeking profit is an example of what public company CEOs might do in anticipation of a rotational shift from growth to value investing that could hit their shares.

Never forget that due to Daniel Ek’s super-voting stock (itself an ESG fail), he is in control of Spotify. So there’s nowhere to hide when the iconography turns to blame. It’s not that easy or cheap to fire him, but if the board really wanted to give him the heave, they could do it.

I expect that Ek’s newly found parsimony will be even more front and center in renegotiations of Spotify’s royalty deals since he’s always blamed the labels for why Spotify can’t turn a profit. Not that WTC lease, surely. This would be a lot more tolerable from someone you thought was actually making an effort to cut all costs not just your revenue. Maybe that will happen, but even if Spotify became a lean mean machine, it will take years to recover from the 1999 levels of stupid that preceded it.

Hellooo Apple. One big thinker in music business issues calls it “Spotify drunk” which describes the tendency of record company marketers to focus entirely on Spotify and essentially ignore Apple Music as a distribution partner. If you’re in that group drinking the Spotify Kool Aid, you may want to give Apple another look. One thing that is almost certain is that that Apple will still be around in five years.

Just sayin.

Mechanicals on Physical and Downloads Get COLA Increase; Nothing for Streaming

Recall that the “Phonorecords IV” minimum mechanical royalties paid by record companies on physical and downloads increased from 9.1¢ to 12¢ with an annual cost of living adjustment each year of the PR IV rate period. The first increase was calculated by the Copyright Royalty Judges and was announced this week. That increase was from 12¢ to 12.40¢ and is automatic effective January 1, 2024.

Note that there is no COLA increase for streaming for reasons I personally do not understand. There really is no justification for not applying a COLA to a government mandated rate that blocks renegotiation to cover inflation expectations. After all, it works for Edmund Phelps.

The Federal Trade Commission on Copyright and AI

The FTC’s comment in the Copyright Office AI inquiry shows an interesting insight to the Commission’s thinking on some of the same copyright issues that bother us about AI, especially AI training. Despite Elon Musk’s refreshing candor of the obvious truth about AI training on copyrights, the usual suspects in the Copyleft (Pam Samuelson, Sy Damle, etc.) seem to have a hard time acknowledging the unfair competition aspects of AI and AI training (at p. 5):

Conduct that may violate the copyright laws––such as training an AI tool on protected expression without the creator’s consent or selling output generated from such an AI tool, including by mimicking the creator’s writing style, vocal or instrumental performance, or likeness—may also constitute an unfair method of competition or an unfair or deceptive practice, especially when the copyright violation deceives consumers, exploits a creator’s reputation or diminishes the value of her existing or future works, reveals private information, or otherwise causes substantial injury to consumers. In addition, conduct that may be consistent with the copyright laws nevertheless may violate Section 5.

We’ve seen unfair competition claims pleaded in the AI cases–maybe we should be thinking about trying to engage the FTC in prosecutions.

Chronology: The Week in Review, Eric Schmidt Spills on his “Bait” to UK PM, Musk on AI Training and other news

Elon Musk Calls Out AI Training

We’ve all heard the drivel coming from Silicon Valley that AI training is fair use. During his interview with Andrew Ross Sorkin at the DealBook conference, Elon Musk (who ought to know given his involvement with AI) said straight up that anyone who says AI doesn’t train on copyrights is lying.

The UK Government “Took the Bait”: Eric Schmidt Says the Quiet Part Out Loud on Biden AI Executive Order and Global Governance

There are a lot of moves being made in the US, UK and Europe right now that will affect copyright policy for at least a generation. Google’s past chair Eric Schmidt has been working behind the scenes for the last two years at least to establish US artificial intelligence policy. Those efforts produced the “Executive Order on the Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence“, the longest executive order in history. That EO was signed into effect by President Biden on October 30, so it’s done. (It is very unlikely that that EO was drafted entirely at Executive Branch agencies.)

You may ask, how exactly did this sweeping Executive Order come to pass? Who was behind it, because someone always is. As you will see in his own words, Eric Schmidt, Google and unnamed senior engineers from the existing AI platforms are quickly making the rule and essentially drafted the Executive Order that President Biden signed into law on October 30. And which was presented as what Mr. Schmidt calls “bait” to the UK government–which convened a global AI safety conference convened by His Excellency Rishi Sunak (the UK’s tech bro Prime Minister) that just happened to start on November 1, the day after President Biden signed the EO, at Bletchley Park in the UK (see Alan Turing). (See “Excited schoolboy Sunak gushes as mentor Musk warns of humanoid robot catastrophe.”)

Remember, an executive order is an administrative directive from the President of the United States that addresses the operations of the federal government, particularly the vast Executive Branch. In that sense, Executive Orders are anti-majoritarian and are as close to at least a royal decree or Executive Branch legislation as we get in the United States (see Separation of Powers, Federalist 47 and Montesquieu). Executive orders are not legislation; they require no approval from Congress, and Congress cannot simply overturn them.

So you can see if the special interests wanted to slide something by the people that was difficult to undo or difficult to pass in the People’s House…and based on Eric Schmidt’s recent interview with Mike Allen at the Axios AI+ (available here), this appears to be exactly what happened with the sweeping and vastly concerning AI Executive Order. I strongly recommend that you watch Mike Allen’s “interview” with Mr. Schmidt which fortunately is the first conversation in the rather long video of the entire event. I put “interview” in scare quotes because whatever it is, it isn’t the kind of interview that prompts probing questions that might put Mr. Schmidt on the spot. That’s understandable because Axios is selling a conference and you simply won’t get senior corporate executives to attend if you put them on the spot. Not a criticism, but understand that you have to find value for your time. Mr. Schmidt’s ego provides plenty of value; it just doesn’t come from the journalists.

Crucially, Congress is not involved in issuing an executive order. Congress may refuse to fund the subject of the EO which could make it difficult to give it effect as a practical matter but Congress cannot overturn an EO. Only a sitting U.S. President may overturn an existing executive order. In Mr. Schmidt’s interview at AI+, he tells us how all this regulatory activity happened:

The tech people along with myself have been meeting for about a year. The narrative goes something like this: We are moving well past regulatory or government understanding of what is possible, we accept that. [Remember the antecedent of “we” means Schmidt and “the tech people,” or more broadly the special interests, not you, me or the American people.].

Strangely…this is the first time that the senior leaders who are engineers have basically said that they want regulation, but we want it in the following ways…which as you know never works in Washington [unless you can write an Executive Order and get the President to sign it because you are the biggest corporation in commercial history].

There is a complete agreement that there are systems and scenarios that are dangerous. [Agreement by or with whom? No one asks.]. And in all of the big [AI platforms with which] you are familiar like GPT…all of them have groups that look at the guard rails [presumably internal groups of managers] and they put constraints on [their AI platform in their silo]. They say “thou shalt not talk about death, thou shall not talk about killing”. [Anthropic, which received a $300 million investment from Google] actually trained the model with its own constitution [see “Claude’s Constitution“] which they did not just write themselves, they hired a bunch of people [actually Claude’s Constitution was crowd sourced] to design a “constitution” for an AI, so it’s an interesting idea.

The problem is none of us believe this is strong enough….Our opinion at the moment is that the best path is to build some IPCC-like environment globally that allows accurate information of what is going on to the policy makers. [This is a step toward global governance for AI (and probably the Internet) through the United Nations. IPCC is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.]

So far we are on a win, the taste of winning is there.  If you look at the UK event which I was part of, the UK government took the bait, took the ideas, decided to lead, they’re very good at this,  and they came out with very sensible guidelines.  Because the US and UK have worked really well together—there’s a group within the National Security Council here that is particularly good at this, and they got it right, and that produced this EO which is I think is the longest EO in history, that says all aspects of our government are to be organized around this.

While Mr. Schmidt may say, aw shucks dictating the rules to the government never works in Washington, but of course that’s simply not true if you’re Google. In which case it’s always true and that’s how Mr. Schmidt got his EO and will now export it to other countries.

It’s not Just Google: Microsoft Is Getting into the Act on AI and Copyright

Be sure to read Joe Bambridge (Politico’s UK editor) on Microsoft’s moves in the UK. You have to love the “don’t make life too difficult for us” line–as in respecting copyright.

Google and New Mountain Capital Buy BMI: Now what?

Careful observers of the BMI sale were not led astray by BMI’s Thanksgiving week press release that was dutifully written up as news by most of the usual suspects except for the fabulous Music Business Worldwide and…ahem…us. You may think we’re making too much out of the Google investment through it’s CapitalG side fund, but judging by how much BMI tried to hide the investment, I’d say that Google’s post-sale involvement probably varies inversely to the buried lede. Not to mention the culture clash over ageism so common at Google–if you’re a BMI employee who is over 30 and didn’t go to Carnegie Mellon, good luck.

And songwriters? Get ready to jump if you need to.

Spotify Brings the Streaming Monopoly to Uruguay

After Uruguay was the first Latin American country to pass streaming remuneration laws to protect artists, Spotify threw its toys out of the pram and threatened to go home. Can we get that in writing? A Spotify exit would probably be the best thing that ever happened to increase local competition in a Spanish language country. Also, this legislation has been characterized as “equitable remuneration” which it really isn’t. It’s its own thing, see the paper I wrote for WIPO with economist Claudio Feijoo. Complete Music Update’s Chris Cook suggested that a likely result of Spotify paying the royalty would be that they would simply do a cram down with the labels on the next round of license negotiations. If that’s not prohibited in the statute, it should be, and it’s really not “paying twice for the same music” anyway. The streaming remuneration is compensation for the streamers use of and profit from the artists’ brand (both featured and nonfeatured), e.g., as stated in the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights and many other human rights documents:

The Covenant recognizes everyone’s right — as a human right–to the protection and the benefits from the protection of the moral and material interests derived from any scientific, literary or artistic production of which he or she is the author. This human right itself derives from the inherent dignity and worth of all persons.